Some time ago, HU (a pseudonym) has been the agent for their thousands of customers in more than half of exports fell, or simply "dormant" and worried.
Recently, he began to get busy as the Dalian port, a top-ranking logistics companies primarily responsible, he claims this year "has been upheld in the experience of power."
"Because of production and exports dropped sharply off a lot of logistics companies in Dalian,bamboo furniture we are left to those customers because they are recruited, the previous two months have increased shipments began." Hu told the "China Economic Weekly ", but they did not result in big gains. "We are very valued by apparel export business point of view, each garment exports this season at all times, and thus lead to the rise in ocean freight and storm tanks. Can be compared with the first half now, although clothing exports picked up,bamboo kitchen but this year the sea No fee has been rising up. "
At the same time, Qingdao, Shandong Li is the steel business owners for their own iron and steel has been robbed a large number of export cargo ship on the ocean to feel lucky, "part of the steel products export tax refund has gone from 13% to 5%, entered August since because domestic and international steel prices has been declining, foreign transactions in the Chinese iron and steel fell to the lowest desire.bamboo flooring "Lee also ship their own businesses feel lucky," Now orders plummeted, steel producers and exporters have felt very sad. "
September 1, China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released in August of this year's China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), the index (48.4%) with the previous month, while after the row last month have been following the two months maintained at 50% or less. China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing analyst Zhang Liqun, a special analysis that: "August's PMI index consistent with the current economic trend, reflecting the trend of lower economic growth has not changed."
PMI Analysis Group Director of the Secretariat of China, the mining consulting (CLII) Ying, general manager, told the "China Economic Weekly," published in the September 1 the data, the August index of manufacturing new export orders was 48.7%, while continued to show a slowdown in export growth trend shows, it is worth noting that the new export orders index rose 1.7 percent last month, becoming the largest increase of all index one. "This may indicate that China's manufacturing export growth has picked up the trend. This is the downturn in the trend highlights the state."
Manufacturing growth continued to slow.
Manufacturing PMI is a composite index. Usually considered, PMI index over 50%, reflecting the overall economic expansion; below 50%, reflecting the economic recession. Over the past 3 years, China PMI index has been above 50%, reflecting the economy is still expanding. And into July, the index for the first time below 50%.
From the PMI data, published this month in China's manufacturing PMI index system, in addition to employees and the purchasing price index reading above 50%, the rest of index less than 50%, bad living conditions of the enterprise has no doubt.
CFLP according to data released this month in 20 industries, 13 industries in the PMI index of less than 50% higher than 50% of the industry is concentrated in food processing and manufacturing, paper printing and Culture Sports manufacturing, tobacco, garments and other light manufacturing industries. Registration from the business point of view, the state-owned enterprises, limited liability companies, joint stock, foreign-invested enterprises were less than 50%. From the product type, the life of just over 50% of consumer goods companies; raw materials and energy, intermediate goods and finished goods used in the production class enterprises are less than 50%.
Zhang Liqun, noted that the August PMI Index shows, "also need to continue to focus on changes in business conditions and take measures to ease the operational difficulties of enterprises, and promote stable and rapid economic development."
Listed companies from the mid-year report released this year, data shows that manufacturing growth has slowed down. Statistics show that the manufacturing sector to achieve the main mid-year total income of 1.93174 trillion yuan, increasing 29.63% year on year, while still, but lower than the growth rate of 34% over the same period last year.
Hai Tong Securities analyst Chen Yong said the Institute for Advanced Macroeconomics, external demand to China's export growth slowed, the domestic tightening macroeconomic policies do not significantly liberalized, PPI and CPI rose squeezed corporate profit margins, lower heat production and business investment , are the main factors causing the slowdown.
Export trade mixed.
Since 2008, the RMB appreciation, rising labor costs, the export tax rebate rate cut and reduced external demand and other factors, some of the export industry profit margins sharply plummeted, especially in the textile and apparel industry. According to the China Textile Industry Association, under the influence of various factors, two-thirds of the textile industry is only 0.62% actual profit margin business. "Garment enterprises in Wenzhou and other places since January this year there have been failures."
Iron and steel industry, the export tax rebate at the national macro-control all the way from 13%, 11%, 8% to 5%, "if the first section of rumors of the cancellation of steel export tax rebate news a reality, and that of the already meager profits of the iron and steel exporters speaking, against considerable. "Qingdao Lee told the" China Economic Weekly. "
In order to prevent the decline in export growth, China's exchange rate and tax policy has two aspects to the regulation. Exchange rate policy of equal treatment of all export enterprises; export tax rebate policy is approved by the State Council, from August 1 onwards, part of the garment and textile export tax rebate rate from 11% to 13%; will be part of the bamboo products, the export tax rebate rate to 11%.
"To some extent, stimulated the growth of export-related industries." PMI Analysis Group of China Director of the Secretariat, in consultation, general manager of mining at the Ying told the "China Economic Weekly," "this month, the textile industry and the manufacture of clothing and shoes and fur down products industry's new export orders index was 56.6% and 58.7% the previous month were up 9.8 and 7.2 percentage points, the rate of increase is more obvious, or even much higher than in previous years over the same period. "
"Of course, in theory, an industry play a decisive role ultimately good or bad, or needs, so whatever tax rebate, if there is no international demand, as exports will not be brought to the enterprise of good, and now the Chinese economy to international dependence on the market has reached 60%, the number of external demand, export growth to China will be a great impact. "YU Ying said.
Relative to the clothing industry, steel industry has faced tremendous challenges. "Clothing, low prices, tax rates by two percentage points to the callback may be alive, the steel is hard to say. And because domestic and international steel prices drop, has entered the wait state abroad." Lee told the "China Economic Weekly," " Steel export enterprises are seeking before the iron and steel production enterprises to supply, now it is manufacturing enterprises export enterprises to call and ask the price drop, not buy? exporters not to buy, manufacturers to lower and lower. foreign companies and our negotiations the same way. "
International Economic expect a soft landing.
YU Ying told the "China Economic Weekly": "PMI from published data, as the PMI index for August was flat last month, the other major indexes such as the production index, new orders index fluctuations are small. So you can change from data see, on the one hand by the current economic growth in China and abroad, and other complex factors, the economic development of the manufacturing sector still showed growth continued to slow the trend; but on the other hand, its development and changes of stabilization is still maintained at more state, there has been no significant decline. "
It seems that Ying, China's economy lagged one year in the United States as a leader in the international economy, although the United States subprime mortgage crisis is not over, but the United States has issued a series of incentive policies, including the military direction of the financial investment, are devaluation of the dollar against the yuan, "not bad", the production is also on the rise. "This encourages the production of two policies to stimulate demand in parallel, making the U.S. economy does not continue to deteriorate."
As the global economy, increasingly integrated global financial and international policy coordination is necessary between the. "At present, Europe is taking various measures to curb inflation, stimulate economic growth. If the world were in the same direction to the efforts to enable the world economy in the process of natural decline steadily falling. Then the whole world economy are likely to achieve a soft landing. "Ying told a reporter in" Of course, if the United States can not control the economic recession, it does not stimulate demand, the trend of the world economy will also be unpredictable. "
According to data recently released by the State Development and Reform Commission show that China in the first half of gross domestic product (GDP) grew 10.4%, of which 10.1% growth in the second quarter, significantly lower than the 10.6% increase in first quarter, well below last year 11.9% increase. But it is worth mentioning that August's PMI index following the purchasing price index fell 4.4 percent in July after falling in August continue to accelerate, the rate reached 13.5 percent. Citi China's macroeconomic analyst Peng Cheng thus believe that this means that inflation pressures have become smaller, the enterprise is a positive factor.